The Political Economy of Venezuelan Oil 1990–2026 A Multidimensional Analysis of Policies, Conflicts, and Regional Impact

Abstract

This study examines the central paradox of the political economy of Venezuelan oil: the stark contradiction between the country’s vast hydrocarbon reserves and its weak global market influence. It analyzes the underlying structural drivers of this paradox, including geotechnical challenges and high marginal production costs, as well as domestic institutional and political factors that have culminated in international legal disputes. The study further explores the geopolitical dimension, arguing that external pressures extend beyond the pursuit of resource control to encompass a broader regional strategy aimed at reshaping spheres of influence. It concludes that the Venezuelan case exemplifies the structural dilemmas of rentier economies, in which governance risks and institutional fragility outweigh purely technical challenges. Accordingly, the paper emphasizes the need for an integrated analytical framework that clearly distinguishes between theoretical reserves and actual productive capacity, while accounting for the complex interaction among technical, institutional, and geopolitical variables.